Odds in Crates

#1
I am completely in disbelief with the odds in obtaining ultra rare items from the moogle crates. I have opened a total of 910 crates since the event started, and I have yet to receive an ultra rare item. I am mostly posting this as an example for the staff in charge to visualize what players go thru to obtain the ultra rare items like the beanie. Most of us players have full time jobs and a family to attend to. Honestly 910 crates requires a lot of hours dedicated to this game just podding and when the odds are this low, is not only discouraging but absolutely ridiculous in my opinion. I understand the value of keeping some items rare in the game. However, with that being said, odds are also based on luck. Some players open 100 crates and get the beanie or any other ultra rare item. While others on the other hand dedicate hours and hours and get absolutely nothing. I don't think this system is fair to any player.

I have shared with old and new staff members how some games have a goal system for players to earn certain items in the game. Those players that put the time and effort into an event will obtain the items thru hard work. Those that choose not to put the time into it can still buy or trade for those items. But at least, you know that if you put time and effort you will get those items you so much desire.
 

AlexanderH

Waiting for 2028
#2
The words this post uses (namely "...completely in disbelief..." and "...absolutely rediculous...") suggest you feel strongly about this.

May I ask what bearing real life has on MyVMK? People who have more free time than others would likely be playing the game more than those with less free time. Yet, no matter who the person is, the way the probabilities of various things happening to them dance should be the same whenever they are logged in. Is it not expected that probabilities might allow players to receive items sooner than others? Should the game guarantee receipt of a rare item after a certain number of hours played?
I don't think this system is fair to any player.
What definition of "fair" does this post use? Is there any evidence that the game has been designed to give some players an advantage over other players?
 
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#3
Some players open 100 crates and get the beanie or any other ultra rare item. While others on the other hand dedicate hours and hours and get absolutely nothing. I don't think this system is fair to any player.
As long as the odds are the same for every person then I don't understand how this is not fair. At lest in these crates you always get something.

VMK originally was not designed for people who have full time jobs and families (but never excluded them), nor was/does this game, as it was based off of the original.
 
#4
I think the posters above are missing the main sentiment of Ballroom’s post. She is frustrated because despite the effort she’s put into the crates (and 910 of these crates is A LOT considering you have to chase them to get them) she hasn’t won anything of great value. Sure, the odds are fair and everyone has the same chance of winning. The problem is that there needs to be system in place to ensure that “unlucky” people still have an opportunity to get a good prize. For example, I think that if you haven’t gotten an ultra after 750 tries, you should be able to exchange your empty crates for one. That way, people would know that to guarantee winning a good prize, they only have to open a certain amount of crates.

This is a “draft” of an idea, but I think it could resolve the negativity from opening crates.
 
#5
I think the posters above are missing the main sentiment of Ballroom’s post. She is frustrated because despite the effort she’s put into the crates (and 910 of these crates is A LOT considering you have to chase them to get them) she hasn’t won anything of great value. Sure, the odds are fair and everyone has the same chance of winning. The problem is that there needs to be system in place to ensure that “unlucky” people still have an opportunity to get a good prize. For example, I think that if you haven’t gotten an ultra after 750 tries, you should be able to exchange your empty crates for one. That way, people would know that to guarantee winning a good prize, they only have to open a certain amount of crates.

This is a “draft” of an idea, but I think it could resolve the negativity from opening crates.
Ok but then that changes the whole scale of what is considered ultra, rare, common, etc. If they were to give everyone a prize then the ultras would be more common, hence negating the 'ultra' aspect.
What usually is supposed to make up for not winning is selling the crates for credits. (which has not been yet put in place)
750 empties x 50 credits = 37.5k credits
That, to me, sounds like a good deal where the "unlucky ones" (as you say it) still get a chunk of credits and can put it towards whatever they want.. instead of messing with the rarity scale and getting an ultra that they haven't won and then people complaining that people who happen to be "unlucky" are suddenly lucky. It just doesn't make any sense to me.
In the end, it's a game. If everything were given to us, it wouldn't be fun. If you're not having fun, stop crating.

Also, just to add; A lot of certain people may seem lucky but maybe they're buying the item, maybe they're trading for it, maybe it's maybaline... you never know.
 
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AlexanderH

Waiting for 2028
#6
I think the posters above are missing the main sentiment of Ballroom’s post. She is frustrated because despite the effort she’s put into the crates (and 910 of these crates is A LOT considering you have to chase them to get them) she hasn’t won anything of great value. Sure, the odds are fair and everyone has the same chance of winning. The problem is that there needs to be system in place to ensure that “unlucky” people still have an opportunity to get a good prize. For example, I think that if you haven’t gotten an ultra after 750 tries, you should be able to exchange your empty crates for one. That way, people would know that to guarantee winning a good prize, they only have to open a certain amount of crates.

This is a “draft” of an idea, but I think it could resolve the negativity from opening crates.
If this is what everyone wants to happen, then so be it. As long as everyone has the same game to play, then I believe everyone should be content, especially since it isn't a requirement to participate. There's a difference between making suggestions to the developers for possible changes and making an entitled post incorrectly claiming that anything is unfair, completely ignoring the fact that the aspect of the game in question is new and wasn't a part of the original game, and likely took great effort to create, along with everything else involved in maintaining a game.

Based on the strength of the language used in the original post, it seems as though a lawsuit would be filed if the game experienced more than a few minutes of downtime.
 
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#7
I think the posters above are missing the main sentiment of Ballroom’s post. She is frustrated because despite the effort she’s put into the crates (and 910 of these crates is A LOT considering you have to chase them to get them) she hasn’t won anything of great value. Sure, the odds are fair and everyone has the same chance of winning. The problem is that there needs to be system in place to ensure that “unlucky” people still have an opportunity to get a good prize. For example, I think that if you haven’t gotten an ultra after 750 tries, you should be able to exchange your empty crates for one. That way, people would know that to guarantee winning a good prize, they only have to open a certain amount of crates.

This is a “draft” of an idea, but I think it could resolve the negativity from opening crates.
That sounds like a good draft of an idea and is something I've thought about in the past. The question is not regarding "fairness" of the system but rather deserving of winning, and I think everyone can agree that someone who opens 1 crate and wins a beanie is less deserving then someone who opens 1000 and gets nothing.
Unfortunately, this game has completely revolved around luck-based events for many years now (dreams, crates, blind bags, even treasure detector magic, the list goes on) and it seems it's going to stay that way (and the few lucky winners always adamantly defend the system)
 
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INFL8

Well-Known Member
#8
The words this post uses (namely "...completely in disbelief..." and "...absolutely rediculous...") suggest you feel strongly about this.

May I ask what bearing real life has on MyVMK? People who have more free time than others would likely playing the game more than those with less free time. Yet, no matter who the person is, the way the probabilities of various things happening to them dance should be the same whenever they are logged in. Is it not expected that probabilities might allow players to receive items sooner than others? Should the game guarantee receipt of a rare item after a certain number of hours played?

What definition of "fair" does this post use? Is there any evidence that the game has been designed to give some players an advantage over other players?
ok what? lol this makes no sense i am sorry.[DOUBLEPOST=1548375323][/DOUBLEPOST]
That sounds like a good draft of an idea and is something I've thought about in the past. The question is not regarding "fairness" of the system but rather deserving of winning, and I think everyone can agree that someone who opens 1 crate and wins a beanie is less deserving then someone who opens 1000 and gets nothing.
Unfortunately, this game has completely revolved around luck-based events for many years now (dreams, crates, blind bags, even treasure detector magic, the list goes on) and it seems it's going to stay that way (and the few lucky winners always adamantly defend the system)
I completely agree with you. During the crates last month, i opened 15 crates. In said crates, I i got two duffy beanies and other stuff. After the first day or two i did not win anything. I think the probability of winning is extremely increased in the first day of crating. What i would like to know, is this truly a random system that dispenses the crates?
example:
1. Odds of getting ultra rare lets say are 1:200 crates. which means there are essentially unlimited ultra rares, it just depends how many crates are opened amongst the vmk population during the time given.
OR
2. x amount of ultra rares in game
Like scream and winter dreams month prizes, there were x amount of magics, hats, etc, each varying upon their rarity. So is there a certain amount of beanies or ultras given out for a particular time gap?

I feel like this is extremely important to know as i find opening the crates in the morning or using the sits you find better rares in the morning (EST). If it is true that only x amount of beanies are given throughout the day, you have better odds in the morning, which would suck for those who work and do crates at night.
 
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#9
Ok but then that changes the whole scale of what is considered ultra, rare, common, etc. If they were to give everyone a prize then the ultras would be more common, hence negating the 'ultra' aspect.
I agree with you. It was just an idea. Here's another idea: Let's say the chances of getting a rare is 1/1000. After opening 500 crates, if you don't win a rare, the chances increase to 1/500. After opening 750 creates, if you don't win a rare, the chances increase to 1/250. In all of these instances, the rate adjusts so the player can still feel like they're making progress towards getting a rare, but it's still a 1/1000-ish chance. Once you obtain a rare, then the rate could reset to 1/1000 once again. This would be like a bad luck prevention system but still maintain the rarity of the item.

In the end, it's a game. If everything were given to us, it wouldn't be fun. If you're not having fun, stop crating.
Everything ISN'T given to us. In fact, nothing in this game is given to us except items in stores, which we use credits for but w/e. Essentially everything is based on luck - SITS, host events, dreams, crates.

Sure, it's fun if I win something in a crate in my first ten tries. However, I really hate when I see players put in a significant amount of work in and get nothing back. I have empathy for players in this game, and its fun for ME to see other players getting the items they want. If all you care about in this "game" is obtaining rare items then that's your prerogative. Personally, I care about more about the players' experience overall, and wish admins would consider making it easier once in a while to obtain items.
 

HOST_Nala

Forums Administrator
Staff member
Forums Administrator
Game Administrator
MyVMK Staff
#11
ok what? lol this makes no sense i am sorry.[DOUBLEPOST=1548375323][/DOUBLEPOST]
I completely agree with you. During the crates last month, i opened 15 crates. In said crates, I i got two duffy beanies and other stuff. After the first day or two i did not win anything. I think the probability of winning is extremely increased in the first day of crating. What i would like to know, is this truly a random system that dispenses the crates?
example:
1. Odds of getting ultra rare lets say are 1:200 crates. which means there are essentially unlimited ultra rares, it just depends how many crates are opened amongst the vmk population during the time given.
OR
2. x amount of ultra rares in game
Like scream and winter dreams month prizes, there were x amount of magics, hats, etc, each varying upon their rarity. So is there a certain amount of beanies or ultras given out for a particular time gap?

I feel like this is extremely important to know as i find opening the crates in the morning or using the sits you find better rares in the morning (EST). If it is true that only x amount of beanies are given throughout the day, you have better odds in the morning, which would suck for those who work and do crates at night.
I'll answer this for you, in crates, there is not a "set" amount of anything. Nor is the probability changed from the first day to the last day. It is consistent.[DOUBLEPOST=1548387398,1548387016][/DOUBLEPOST]
Sure, it's fun if I win something in a crate in my first ten tries. However, I really hate when I see players put in a significant amount of work in and get nothing back. I have empathy for players in this game, and its fun for ME to see other players getting the items they want. If all you care about in this "game" is obtaining rare items then that's your prerogative. Personally, I care about more about the players' experience overall, and wish admins would consider making it easier once in a while to obtain items.
We do take things like this into account. Thats why we put every single ultra rare hat from the original game into treasure detector. While yes, is still a luck based thing, but is also something you have to do little to nothing to obtain (the magic). Its given out free at all host events and is a consolation prize for bigger events. So even if you work a full time job, or are a full time student or what have you, you still have a chance at things while not putting in a serious amount of time.
 
#13
I agree with you. It was just an idea. Here's another idea: Let's say the chances of getting a rare is 1/1000. After opening 500 crates, if you don't win a rare, the chances increase to 1/500. After opening 750 creates, if you don't win a rare, the chances increase to 1/250. In all of these instances, the rate adjusts so the player can still feel like they're making progress towards getting a rare, but it's still a 1/1000-ish chance. Once you obtain a rare, then the rate could reset to 1/1000 once again. This would be like a bad luck prevention system but still maintain the rarity of the item.


Everything ISN'T given to us. In fact, nothing in this game is given to us except items in stores, which we use credits for but w/e. Essentially everything is based on luck - SITS, host events, dreams, crates.

Sure, it's fun if I win something in a crate in my first ten tries. However, I really hate when I see players put in a significant amount of work in and get nothing back. I have empathy for players in this game, and its fun for ME to see other players getting the items they want. If all you care about in this "game" is obtaining rare items then that's your prerogative. Personally, I care about more about the players' experience overall, and wish admins would consider making it easier once in a while to obtain items.

I said if.
I literally don't have the time or energy to answer to this thread anymore. I'll agree to disagree.:moonwalk:
 
#15
I said if.
I literally don't have the time or energy to answer to this thread anymore. I'll agree to disagree.:moonwalk:
Sorry if I misinterpreted or offended you. I was just trying to express another idea. :shrug:

Sure, in theory I'd love to see everyone be able to obtain anything and everything they could ever want. Participation trophy ultras ain't it.
Totally valid point. Scratch my ideas from before, because its clear that people would rather keep the odds the way they are.

Here's my third and final idea (if anyone actually cares to discuss this further). What if there was a participation prize, but it was only available to you if you opened x amount of crates? It would be similar to the VMK Sunset pin process, where you knew that you had to get x amount of points in JC to win a pin. The prize rarities would all remain the same within the crates, and the bonus prize would just be its own stand alone prize (preferably a clothing item?).

I just think that it would create more motivation towards collecting crates knowing that there's a cool, unique prize you can win regardless of whether or not you won the ultra rare. I also wish people were a little more open to discussing ways this game could be improved. It's clear that the original poster was upset about the situation, and just needed someone to say "I feel you" rather than "well that's the way it is, suck it up". :surrender:
 

Squiggle

Well-Known Member
#16
I think the easiest solution to this that has come up countless times before is tell players the odds of getting things so they know if it is worth their time to do the activity. Some people wont have time to collect 1000 crates if that's what it takes to get an ultra.
 
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