Basket Odds and proclaimed rare item.

Ern

Ern

Yams in my bank account
#21
#21
noun
  1. success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.

@Lilac I agree its fun and i love the game and community. If you put at it at a "luck" basis then is it fair that people have more "luck" then others? We clearly don't know what amount of luck each person playing the game has. Its just like the power ball lottery every single person who entered has the same amount of chance to win because in the lottery drawing each number has an even chance to be pulled. at least in the lottery they release the odds of winning.
 
V

VMKfan

Well-Known Member
#22
#22
I think some people are looking too much into the event. Everyone has an equal chance. As I remember in the first crate event, there was an endless supply of stitch hats and princess Minnie hat. When the keys retired was when they were pulled out. I assume this is the case as well
 
Foreverrose

Foreverrose

Member
#23
#23
This seem to always come up with these kind of events. It would be nice the know the ratio of getting items but the not exact number. If that is known people get too ridiculous with their offers and get too caught up in values. Then again would be nice to know if your just wasting you time or if it is worth the effort. So it catch 22. To me knowing the ratio won't make it more or less fair.

P.s. Comparing Myvmk to a business to me isn't very good comparison. Very simplify version pretty sure this was created from someone's hobby and we are using it.
 
Stargirll

Stargirll

Well-Known Member
#25
#25
I have done 491 Mickey and 519 Minnie baskets so far and only have some of the eggs (have 30 different ones) and basic clothing. No white clothing and no pet. (Does anyone have a picture of the chocolate sprinkles egg?) :(
 
Lost

Lost

Well-Known Member
#26
#26
Ern said:
noun
  1. success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.

@Lilac I agree its fun and i love the game and community. If you put at it at a "luck" basis then is it fair that people have more "luck" then others? We clearly don't know what amount of luck each person playing the game has. Its just like the power ball lottery every single person who entered has the same amount of chance to win because in the lottery drawing each number has an even chance to be pulled. at least in the lottery they release the odds of winning.
Click to expand...
You can't blame someone for getting 2/250 though. I mean that's the point of luck, even if its 1/5k every basket you open still has the same odds as your first one.

My guess is it might be 1/1k for flips and people are just getting lucky, or unlucky, might be 1/5-10k but I doubt it. As for white clothes/pets maybe 1/500?

Oh and I very much doubt they put a set limit in if the release them for 3 days not gonna be have only 10 flips released.
 
Ern

Ern

Yams in my bank account
#27
#27
@Lost what are you trying to say? you contradicted your self when you said "My guess is it might be 1/1k for flips and people are just getting lucky, or unlucky, might be 1/5-10k but I doubt it. As for white clothes/pets maybe 1/500?" if i've opened 1000 crates then where is my 1 rare? am i not just lucky? if i'm not then why do people have better luck then me?

for the limit about thing i think it will just make the economy more stable with pricing. if there are only 1000 pairs of flip flops then the price is rather set then just guessing the price on them. you can't do supply and demand if there is an unknown number of supply.
 
Last edited:
Ern

Ern

Yams in my bank account
#28
#28
@VMKfan From sources who have been playing vmk since 2013 they have told me that the first crates have worked differently then the crate released on easter this year, the first crates, which included princess Minnie and Stitch hat, you had to use keys to open them and also the event lasted longer so the chances were better. Since this was only 3 days the odds seem much lower. and if i've recalled from sources they have told me they have done a similar event like this like the valentines crates which included no rare. i'm just trying to suggest that they should tell us the odds of pulling the white flip flops since they made an in game announcement that said the white flip flops were rare, people are frustrated and i feel as if telling us the chances of pulling them will lessen the frustration.
 
Lost

Lost

Well-Known Member
#29
#29
Ern said:
@Lost what are you trying to say? you contradicted your self when you said "My guess is it might be 1/1k for flips and people are just getting lucky, or unlucky, might be 1/5-10k but I doubt it. As for white clothes/pets maybe 1/500?" if i've opened 1000 crates then where is my 1 rare? am i not just lucky? if i'm not then why do people have better luck then me?

for the limit about thing i think it will just make the economy more stable with pricing. if there are only 1000 pairs of flip flops then the price is rather set then just guessing the price on them. you can't do supply and demand if there is an unknown number of supply.
Click to expand...
If you open 1000 baskets you aren't guarenteed white flips, thats not how odds worked. It would be about a 65% chance you would get it by then. Luck is random, if you spin a random number generator 10 times then you might get 1 3 times and someone else might not get it at all. That's why it's random. So I didn't contradict myself.

I doubt there would even get 1000 flips into the game and it's already limited by only being out for 3 days. It's already pretty rare so limiting it further doesn't really seem smart as you'd end up with too few in the game.

Also supply and demand always works like that, you don't know exactly how many stitch hats are in game, the supply vs demand is determined by people buying and selling at the time and how much they want to pay vs older trades. It's probable there is less than 100 white flips in the game atm, so if more than 100 people want it the prices will rise.

EDIT: And even if you open another 1k after the first 1k, you're still only ay 86% chance to get it which isn't really guaranteed.
 
Last edited:
Ern

Ern

Yams in my bank account
#30
#30
@Foreverrose
P.s. Comparing Myvmk to a business to me isn't very good comparison. Very simplify version pretty sure this was created from someone's hobby and we are using it.
Click to expand...
i mean this game runs on supply and demand plus we are getting "taxed" for trading. yeah i know this is a hobby and i appreciate @Amy for coding the game and we can not thank her enough for all the fun we have on this game.
 
Ern

Ern

Yams in my bank account
#31
#31
@Lost i agree with the random generator but if we are working with number generators what number are we working with ? obviously if someone rolls a 250 they have a better chance of roller the number 23 then person rolling the number 4000. which bring back to my argument of getting to know the odds.

i completely agree with you on the supply and demand topic, i was wrong but i think it'll be easier to have a set amount, say we know that there is only 1000 of this item and 500 people want it and 200 are selling it, that would make it easier to have a set price.

i just want to know the odds of getting an proclaimed rare item.
 
Rosey

Rosey

しねください！
#33
#33
I honestly understand the frustration of this. As a first day player who had done all of the crate events, they were frustrating for someone who has "bad luck" (at least with the crates that have rare rares). The only "rare" I ever won from a crate was a leroy and green flips(last day too) in the original crates and a wizard hat from 2015 halloween. I was upset? that people were getting stitches pink flips minnies BLACK FLIP HATS sparrows with between 5-20 crates and I'm just sitting here with a bunch of empty crates and slightly useless prizes. It kinda sucks that it's random but sucks more when youre running on fumes and past 1000 crates/whatever. I'm salty? Sure am but it's whatever, I have bad luck with crates and I will always know this now on. I however wish the white shorts and white flip flops were a little more dispersed; although it seems (to me) that everyone has them........... Which doesn't make sense, why don't the people with 4000 baskets have them then if i see maybe half a room full of people wearing those white clothing?
 
Lost

Lost

Well-Known Member
#34
#34
Rosey said:
I honestly understand the frustration of this. As a first day player who had done all of the crate events, they were frustrating for someone who has "bad luck" (at least with the crates that have rare rares). The only "rare" I ever won from a crate was a leroy and green flips(last day too) in the original crates and a wizard hat from 2015 halloween. I was upset? that people were getting stitches pink flips minnies BLACK FLIP HATS sparrows with between 5-20 crates and I'm just sitting here with a bunch of empty crates and slightly useless prizes. It kinda sucks that it's random but sucks more when youre running on fumes and past 1000 crates/whatever. I'm salty? Sure am but it's whatever, I have bad luck with crates and I will always know this now on. I however wish the white shorts and white flip flops were a little more dispersed; although it seems (to me) that everyone has them........... Which doesn't make sense, why don't the people with 4000 baskets have them then if i see maybe half a room full of people wearing those white clothing?
Click to expand...
Some people just got really unlucky. I opened just under 2.5k baskets and got 1 white shorts, 1 white baggies, and no pet or flips. Some people have to get unlucky thought o balance out the people who get them really early :{
 
PrincessAveri

PrincessAveri

Well-Known Member
#35
#35
I haven't won one rare item. Spent a lot of time collecting eggs.
 
PirateKing

PirateKing

Well-Known Member
#36
#36
I opened over 1700 baskets and nothing white. I don't know if waiting until the baskets stopped dropping to use them had anything to do with it, but it did seem A LOT of people were running around in whites the first day. There were also a lot of restarts and I was thinking they probably had to put the brakes on how quickly rare items were being dispersed. I do not know anything for sure and one of the restarts was apparently to stop baskets from showing up on exits and that was not even corrected after the restart to do so. Just feeling unlucky, I guess and I guess from now on it is best to open crates as I collect and not wait.
 
Mr.Photographer

Mr.Photographer

Well-Known Member
#37
#37
New plan: cannon goes off in-game every time a rare is found in a crate. Like the Hunger Games. But without the death. Maybe.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top