Why are the odds so high on host games
- Thread starter Wombat
- Start date
Well they have several host events per month. And every event goes on for hours usually... Since each round is only a few minutes... literally hundreds of host prizes are given out. They have to make it a challenge because if it wasn't, would it really be fun? And the items wouldn't be rare or special... 
Ok Let me rephrase this question. Do the HOSTS realize that the spinner game (18 or Higher) produces a probabilty of winning of just 8%.
Some host games have a winning percentage of 25% for the same prize, this month the animation viewer. why is there such a large spread between games?
Again this question is directed at the HOSTS!!!
Some host games have a winning percentage of 25% for the same prize, this month the animation viewer. why is there such a large spread between games?
Again this question is directed at the HOSTS!!!
If the question is directed towards the hosts the best way to ask them is through PMs. You can send them a link to the thread but sometimes some threads like these do not get a response because the staff can't see them.
Personally I see your point in this. There is a bit of disparity between the events in chance to win. And as others have stated some events should be harder as to maintain the rarity of the item. Can't have them all be too easy or else no one will have much value in the item.
Personally I see your point in this. There is a bit of disparity between the events in chance to win. And as others have stated some events should be harder as to maintain the rarity of the item. Can't have them all be too easy or else no one will have much value in the item.
I know for a fact the HOSTs care about the percentages, before one even came into the shoutbox to ask for anyone's help finding out the percentage.
You can't expect every event to be the same odds and still have different types of events - for example last month the spinner game will obviously not have the same odds as the "go pick a color" game - one's a .5 chance of winning the other .167. However, the odds can't be super high and still make it worthwhile to go - the prizes are not something that everyone needs 10 of to make their rooms, and so the only real incentive to go wait in a 300+ line is to get the prize that's rare.
Idk I just think they're doing a fine job with it right now.
You can't expect every event to be the same odds and still have different types of events - for example last month the spinner game will obviously not have the same odds as the "go pick a color" game - one's a .5 chance of winning the other .167. However, the odds can't be super high and still make it worthwhile to go - the prizes are not something that everyone needs 10 of to make their rooms, and so the only real incentive to go wait in a 300+ line is to get the prize that's rare.
Idk I just think they're doing a fine job with it right now.
C
If you are wondering about odds. This is the sheet I use. If my math is wrong, which I don't think it is, as I had a few people double check it, feel free to let me know. I don't know where you got 8% though.
That chart's based off a chart of individual rolls odds for certain numbers, IE, the odds of roll say, 19 exactly with 4 dice are 4.32%. To get the odds for a specific spinner blitz number, you simply add up the odds all rolls above and including that number.
Hope this helps anyone curious about Spinner Blitz odds.
EDIT: It's a bit messy, and doesn't black out impossible rolls, so keep that in mind if you see odds of 0%.
using wrong numbers
Glad you posted that table because it is all wrong. You have to find out the probability of rolling each number. An example of the flaw in the table is the number 1. . So what they are showing is 100% which we know is wrong because you could roll 0000. There is only 4 posible spins that would produce the number 1
0001 0010 0100 and 1000
Now we know the number of possible outcomes in 7x7x7x7= 2401
So the possibilty of rolling a 1 is .0016 or .16 percent
Since the numbers are arranged in a bell curve with the middle numbers having more combinations/posibilities and the higher and lower numbers having less posiblities/combinations you need to account for that distribution. Starting with the highest numbers and working down to 18:
roll # of posibilities
24 1
23 4
22 10
21 20
20 35
19 56
18 84
Total 210/2401=.08746 or 8.746%
Also look at the pecentage on spinning the number 24. According to the chart there is a .08 chance. Since we all know the only posible way to get to 24 is spinning 6666 that means you have a 1 in 2401 chance or .0000416 or .00416%
The number also may be off if that person making the table used dice (As the heading indicates) which have 6 posibilities, 1-6, instead of a spinner which has 7 posibilities, 0-6. (Just ran the numbers at that is the problem)
Thanks for you time and btw I got A's in all my college math courses including Statistics, Quantitative Measures and Statistical Process Control. please excuse any typos. lol.
Glad you posted that table because it is all wrong. You have to find out the probability of rolling each number. An example of the flaw in the table is the number 1. . So what they are showing is 100% which we know is wrong because you could roll 0000. There is only 4 posible spins that would produce the number 1
0001 0010 0100 and 1000
Now we know the number of possible outcomes in 7x7x7x7= 2401
So the possibilty of rolling a 1 is .0016 or .16 percent
Since the numbers are arranged in a bell curve with the middle numbers having more combinations/posibilities and the higher and lower numbers having less posiblities/combinations you need to account for that distribution. Starting with the highest numbers and working down to 18:
roll # of posibilities
24 1
23 4
22 10
21 20
20 35
19 56
18 84
Total 210/2401=.08746 or 8.746%
Also look at the pecentage on spinning the number 24. According to the chart there is a .08 chance. Since we all know the only posible way to get to 24 is spinning 6666 that means you have a 1 in 2401 chance or .0000416 or .00416%
The number also may be off if that person making the table used dice (As the heading indicates) which have 6 posibilities, 1-6, instead of a spinner which has 7 posibilities, 0-6. (Just ran the numbers at that is the problem)
Thanks for you time and btw I got A's in all my college math courses including Statistics, Quantitative Measures and Statistical Process Control. please excuse any typos. lol.
Last edited:
