the probability of pod:experiment should not be different for different players (if it is, and i have no evidence of such, then that would indicate there is corruption). there is no average per person; in other words, there is no "average for
you" just as there is no "average for
me" (emphasis added). furthermore, and i am noting this because i have seen people try this with false hope: the odds DO NOT increase if you open 10 in a row or if you open 1,000 in a row (this is a nice idea, but it's not how math works).
i was told (i honestly do not remember by whom) that the odds of pulling an experiment from the pod were 1/10 (10%). therefore, it makes total sense that you could open 50 pods and get nothing (although the probability of you pulling an experiment obviously increases, it does not guarantee anything). for example (these are my real numbers):
- i have opened 2010 pods and i have won 199 experiments. the odds are: 199/2010 = 0.099 (9.9%). this is a near statistical match to the supposed 1/10 probability of experiment to pod.
- of the 199 experiments i have won, 162 are common (13 ace, 20 snooty, 17 slushy, 16 woops, 16 finder, 16 clip, 14 nosy, 18 sparky, 15 glitch, 17 belle). therefore: 162/199 = 81.4% (alternatively, you can do 162/2010 = 80.59% and round).
- of the 199 experiments i have won, 36 are rare (12 clyde, 5 bonnie, 6 evile, 4 spike, 5 angel, 4 squeak). my odds are: 36/199 (alternatively, you can do 36/2010 and round) = 18%.
- of the 199 experiments i have won, 1 is a super rare (babyfier). therefore: 1/199 = 0.005 (.5%)*
*the caveat here is that
my sample size is not large enough to indicate what the true probability for pulling a super rare from within the 1/10 probability of opening a pod to get an experiment is. my margin of error may be too large; however, i am inclined to think the probability is likely 0.5%-1%. if anyone has real, accurate numbers then we can all do the math, yay.
either way, in my view,
there is a huge RED FLAG when someone opens over 10,000 pods and has nothing to show for it. i, for example, am actually quite bothered that i've opened 2010 pods and have not gotten any user-created rare experiments, let alone the hat bundles since i won the babyfier within the first week of the pods being released. perhaps this is indicative of what the common/rare/super rare probability (rounded to likely scenario) is: 80%, 20%, .5%. personally,
these odds are TOO LOW to guarantee there will be enough super rares in-game; the controlled variable is faulty. either it needs to be changed (to something that guarantees that after x # of pulls you are guaranteed a rare or super rare, i.e. a gacha system [shout out nate]), or it needs to be removed.
i personally think the odds should be increased on a thursday at midnight and the pods should be removed the following monday (giving players friday 12:01am to monday, 11:59pm to collect). then we can all get double creds, win a quest prize, go to events, collect pods and get excited, start a trading frenzy, and move on.